Is Gold’s Bull Run Over or Just Taking a Breather?
After a historic rally, gold prices are
currently resting in a tight range between $3,200 and $3,350, down 4% from
April all-time high of $3,500. In India, gold trades at ₹98,220, barely
moving over the past two months. Does this mean the bull run is over, or is
gold waiting for its next big trigger?
Before making any assumptions, let’s understand what’s really driving the gold market right now.
Why Did Gold Rise So Much?
From October 2022 to April 2025, gold surged
from $1,500 to $3,500. Several global events fueled this rise:
·
Geopolitical
tensions – Wars in Ukraine, Israel, and growing conflicts with Iran
led investors to seek safety in gold.
·
Trade
tariffs – Trump aggressive tariff plans created uncertainty in
global trade.
·
Inflation
fears – Gold typically shines when inflation risks rise.
But some of these issues have eased. So what’s next?
What’s Holding Gold Back Now?
The gold market is now watching a mix of
macroeconomic triggers:
1. US Federal Debt and Interest Payments
·
As of July 17, 2025, US federal debt stands at a
massive $36.62 trillion.
·
Interest payments have already crossed $900 billion this year.
·
A Fed rate cut could ease this burden and boost
gold.
2. Federal Reserve Policy and Trump’s Pressure
·
The current Fed rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%.
·
Trump is demanding a 3% rate cut, blaming Powell for delays.
·
If rates are slashed, gold could surge gold and interest rates usually move in opposite
directions.
3. Dollar Index Weakness
·
The dollar
index is down over 9% this year.
·
A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to
global investors.
· It also signals potential economic weakness another gold booster.
New Geopolitical and Political Risk
The drama between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome
Powell is intensifying:
·
Trump wants Powell to cut rates aggressively.
·
There are whispers of the White House pushing
for Powell’s resignation.
· Any hit to US Fed’s independence could spook investors and drive demand for gold.
Central Banks Still Buying Gold
Central banks haven’t stopped buying. In fact, their steady purchases show strong confidence in gold’s long-term value. Investors are also pouring money into gold ETFs and gold-backed mutual funds.
What Could Trigger the Next Gold Rally?
Here’s what investors should keep an eye on:
| Trigger | Impact on Gold |
|---|---|
| Fed Rate Cuts | Positive |
| Weak US Dollar | Positive |
| Inflation Staying Low | Slightly Negative |
| Geopolitical Escalations | Strongly Positive |
| Trump vs. Powell Showdown | Strongly Positive |
| US Debt Interest Over ₹1 Trillion | Major Psychological Trigger |
If the Fed cuts rates starting September, gold could make new highs. But if the Fed waits or inflation rises, gold might stay stuck in the current range.
Final Word: Should You Buy Gold Now?
If you're a long-term investor, gold still
holds value as a hedge against inflation,
economic uncertainty, and political risks. But if you’re looking for
short-term gains, keep a close eye on:
·
Fed policy announcements
·
Dollar Index movements
·
Trump’s economic stance
·
Global tensions (especially in the Middle East)
The gold bull run might have paused, but it’s definitely not over.
