MCX Share Price Doubles Since March: Can It Hit ₹10,000 as UBS Predicts?

Introduction: MCX Shares Break Records

The stock of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) soared to a record high of ₹8,808 on Wednesday, surging over 7% intraday, after global brokerage UBS raised its price target to ₹10,000 per share—the highest among all brokerages tracked by Bloomberg.

This bullish view by UBS has reignited interest among investors, especially with strong growth fundamentals, innovative product pipeline, and a rapidly growing trading volume. The MCXshare price, which had already doubled from its March lows of ₹4,410, now appears poised for even greater heights.

But what exactly is driving this rally? Is there more to come? And what should investors watch out for?

Let’s break it all down.

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UBS Bullish on MCX: Target ₹10,000

In a note dated June 24, 2025, UBS maintained its 'Buy' rating on MCX and raised its price target to ₹10,000, implying a potential upside of about 17% from the current levels.

According to UBS:

“The market has not yet fully priced in the long-term growth potential of MCX. We see consistent trading volume growth, new product innovation, and increased earnings visibility over the next three years.”

UBS also raised earnings estimates (EPS) for FY27 and FY28 by 13–17%, projecting a 26% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings for FY26–28.

Key Drivers for UBS Upgrade:

Growth Trigger	UBS Commentary
Rising ADV (Average Daily Volume)	Futures ADV up 50% QoQ; Options ADV up 30% QoQ
Electricity Derivatives	Recently approved by SEBI; can contribute 3–12% to revenue
Monthly Bullion Contracts	Increased retail and institutional traction
Upcoming Index Options	Potential for further volume expansion
Operating Leverage	High fixed-cost base leading to stronger profit margins as volumes scale

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SEBI Nod for Electricity Derivatives: A Game Changer?

On June 3, 2025, MCX received the much-awaited approval from SEBI to launch Electricity Derivatives—a move that analysts believe could transform India’s commodity trading landscape.

UBS predicts that this alone could add 3–12% to MCX's top line. Why does this matter?

What are Electricity Derivatives?

Electricity derivatives allow market participants—including power producers, distributors, and large industrial users—to hedge against price fluctuations in the electricity market.

In India, this could help energy-intensive sectors such as steel, aluminium, cement, and manufacturing reduce their cost volatility.

“Structurally, we believe MCX is well-positioned to deliver secular growth as awareness of hedging commodities increases in the domestic market, specifically for electricity derivatives,” UBS added.

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Silver Options, Bullion Index, and New Products

UBS noted strong traction in new silver options, especially in near-expiry contracts—preferred by retail traders and arbitrageurs alike.

Additionally, the brokerage pointed to MCX’s upcoming bullion index and monthly contracts, which are expected to:

• Offer better liquidity
• Encourage broader participation
• Improve hedging efficiency

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Volume Boom: The Quiet Backbone of the Rally

Behind the explosive rally in mcx share price lies a more silent yet powerful driver: trading volumes.

Since the start of FY26 (April 2025), MCX has seen record-breaking activity:

Metric	FY25	FY26 (So far)	Growth
🔁 Options Premium ADTV	₹3,100 crore	₹4,130 crore	+33%
🔁 Futures ADTV	₹27,050 crore	₹40,700 crore	+50.5%

This robust increase in Average Daily Turnover (ADTV) across both options and futures contracts is a clear indicator of rising participation and confidence in the platform.

“Volume is king in the exchange business. As more liquidity flows in, more participants get attracted. It’s a virtuous cycle,” said an ICICI Securities analyst.

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MCX vs NSE: Will the Leader Stay on Top?

One concern that has shadowed MCX in the past was the entry of NSE into the commodity derivatives space.

However, the fears of a market share war are slowly fading. Despite NSE launching similar products, MCX continues to dominate.

UBS on Competition:

“We are now less concerned about market share losses. MCX new platform is gaining steady traction. Liquidity leads volumes, and MCX still commands trust among commodity traders.”

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ICICI Securities Weighs In: ‘Add’ Rating with ₹8,800 Target

Indian brokerage ICICI Securities is also bullish but slightly more conservative. It maintained its ‘Add’ rating, increasing its target to ₹8,800.

Key observations from ICICI:

• Strong uptick in FY26 volumes
• Rising interest in new products
• High commodity volatility (due to geopolitical risks) helping boost turnover

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MCX Share Price Performance: A Standout Performer in 2025

Here’s a quick look at how the mcx share price has performed in 2025 so far:

Date	Price (₹)	Event
March 2025	4,410.1	YTD Low
June 9, 2025	8,216	Surge after silver options update
June 25, 2025	8,808	UBS sets ₹10k target

Upside from March

+100%

YTD Gain: +39%
Benchmark Nifty 50 Gain: +6.5%

MCX now has a market cap of ₹43,807.60 crore, cementing its place as a mid-cap outperformer with large-cap behavior.

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Investor Sentiment: What Market Participants Are Saying

Rohit Shah, a retail investor from Mumbai:

“I picked MCX in April thinking it would go to ₹7,000 in a few months. Now analysts are calling ₹10k! The volume growth and product pipeline are impressive.”

Nidhi Taneja, Fund Manager at AlphaWave AMC:

“MCX is a long-term story. The Indian commodities market is still under-penetrated. As the investor base matures, platforms like MCX will benefit exponentially.”

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What Lies Ahead: Is ₹10,000 Just the Beginning?

Analysts broadly agree on one thing—MCX's journey is far from over.

With more regulatory clarity, innovative product launches, and India’s rising demand for hedging platforms, MCX could well evolve into a multi-fold story.

Key Upcoming Triggers:

1. Launch of Electricity Derivatives (Q2 FY26 expected)
2. Rollout of Index Options
3. Possible International Partnerships
4. Increased institutional participation
5. SEBI reforms in commodity trading norms

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Risks to Watch Out For

Even though the outlook is strong, no stock comes without risk.

Risk Factor	Description
Regulatory Uncertainty	SEBI policies and compliance delays can impact operations
Competition from NSE/BSE	Still evolving; sudden innovation from rivals could hurt MCX
Technology Challenges	Platform glitches or outages could affect trader confidence
Global Commodities Crash	Prices of key commodities affect trading appetite

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MCX: Company Snapshot

Metric	Value
💰 Market Cap	₹43,807.60 crore
🏢 Listed Since	2012
🧾 Promoter Holding	~0% (public exchange)
🧮 PE Ratio	~55x (forward)
🔍 Sector	Financial Services (Exchange)

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Final Thoughts: MCX – A Market Leader Ready to Leap

The latest surge in mcx shareprice is not just a random jump. It’s backed by fundamentals, rising volumes, and promising product innovations.

With a price target of ₹10,000 by UBS, the stock has captured the imagination of institutional and retail investors alike.

If MCX continues to deliver on its volume growth, diversify its product offerings, and maintain market leadership, it could emerge as one of the biggest wealth creators in India's exchange ecosystem.

For long-term investors, MCX might just be getting started.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1. Why did MCX shares hit a record high recently?
A1. MCX shares surged over 7% after UBS raised its target price to ₹10,000, citing strong volume growth, product innovation, and higher earnings visibility.

Q2. What is UBS's price target for MCX and why?
A2. UBS set a ₹10,000 price target, the highest among all brokerages. They expect a 17% upside driven by new products like electricity derivatives and increased trading volumes.

Q3. Is MCX losing market share to NSE?
A3. Not significantly. While NSE has entered commodity derivatives, volumes remain low compared to MCX, which still enjoys higher trust and liquidity.

Q4. Is electricity derivatives trading a big deal for MCX?
A4. Yes, SEBI-approved electricity derivatives could add 3–12% to MCX's revenue and attract more institutional users.

Q5. Should I invest in MCX now?
A5. While the outlook is strong, investors should consider risk factors like regulation and competition. Always consult a financial advisor.